A reminder to my Generation.

That is the Earth, our home, it is not our mother, it does not think or care about us, it is just a rock that will go on without us if we disappear one day. We are the biggest and most important resident of this house, this abode for life in an otherwise (apparently at least) deserted neighborhood. We have also started renovating the place, slowly at first (Agriculture, fire, preindustrial civilization) but now picking up at ever increasing pace (industrial revolution too now) and affecting the lives of almost every single resident. Some have adapted, adopted (domestication) or simply moved out (extinction) of the house due to our changes to it. The problem of course is that their is no one to tell us when to stop, when we are in danger of collapsing the house on top of all of us, or making the residents we depend on move out. No one has ever seen the blueprints to the house, been shown its weak and critical points and systems to us or even given a decent tour of the place. We are in effect building on what could be very shaky foundations and are unable to put on the parking brakes lest we risk a chaos that could still bring down the roof on all of us anyways. We only barely missed (several times) blowing up our entire section of the house years ago. Our people demand that we improve the lot of everyone and peacefully correct the gaps that separate the winners of our history from the losers. They will not stand for any halt of that process and especially not for one that will keep them in poverty. The 5-6 billion poor in the world will not accept a cap on their standard of living especially if the rich billion get to keep theirs. Stagnation has always led to chaos down the road, faster when that stagnation is self-imposed. We are in effect unable to change course but we can still avert disaster if we can just figure out the right pace to go forward with.

With this analogy I have shown to you that we are in a vice of both having a possibility that we will collapse the resource and ecosystem base that keeps modern civilization and the process of globalization going due to over eagerness. While also having the problem that we can't really put the brakes on that process unless we want to risk social chaos that could collapse civilization all together. This is problem with modern global civilization it is no longer resilient to things that in more primitive economies and civilizations could of endured due to our interconnectedness. The world economy is now much like the economy of the late roman empire, where all sections were utterly dependent on each other for survival. Any collapse of the global economic network and brittle support structure would likely result in a new dark age. But this time made a thousand times worse by its global reach, the looming threat of environmental catastrophe following it and finally the fact the loss of resulting from the chaos will make it seem like the end of days. Billions would die and the survivors would have little to look forward to other then picking through the rubble and trying rebuild while anarchy rages all around them. The few remaining lights of civilization that survived the fall would soon find themselves swamped with refugees and be subject to constant raids by roaming groups of pillagers. A Neo-Feudalism is likely to follow that would likely hold back civilization for millennia and would be unable to deal with the problems that we have created for them. This Dark age scenario could be the result of a myriad array of problems and likely to come unexpected and catch us unprepared. Global civilization must walk a high tightrope for mankind to succeed, nay to survive this harsh universe. Because it is likely that the universe will not give us a second chance, nor forgive for our transgressions.

So then why I am addressing you guys, members of my fellow generation, what makes us and our children so important? It is not because we are the last born but rather that we are the first-born of a new age. An age of novel opportunities and terrifying prospects that could make or break humanity. We are the first generation who may be able to permanently end the Malthusian trap that has held back mankind for so long. If we can keep Malthus and the forces of nature at bay until 2050 when the UN predicts population will peak then we my friends have largely succeeded at our goal. For a peak in population would allow us to put on the brakes on growth without having to worry about having to care for more and more people. It would allow mankind in effect to take a collective breather and take a look around at our surroundings and assess what must be done to repair the damage of climb upwards.

We my friends must also work to keep men from destroying their own creation and prevent it from collapsing. The only way we able to fix the damage from our development is by completing the process and preventing global regression. Global problems require global solutions that will involve all nations. We therefore must work our hardest to build an effective global governance structure that can deal with all global issues and keep a handle on global activity in order to prevent a world dominated by private interests. A global market must have a global government to effectively regulate and stimulate it. The alternative is a chaotic world economy whose crisis's will make the financial crisis look like hiccups. Those potential crisis's also will carry with them the potential to collapse and set back civilization something that must be prevented at all costs.

None of this will be easy as the inertia of the current global system and disorganization of global power make reform and change difficult to accomplish. Yet we can't just give up as every future generation will either celebrate or condemn our deeds. If we can rise above history and overcome the challenges that face us then mankind and life on in general will have a much better future and will be given the possibility to spread beyond the Earth and achieve true glory as a mature space faring civilization. Should we fail and let disaster take hold then we condemn our descendent's to lives of poverty and mankind to a likely eventual extinction.
It is likely that the vast majority of civilizations in the universe reach this point and fail to go to the next step considering the fact that no one seems to be nearby. If we can make that next step then we will prove to the universe that we are not like the others and that we deserve to survive and thrive.
The choice of course is ultimately ours.
Chose wisely, friends.

America's needs.

America as of late has built up a obsession with our own downfall.
We see many threats in the world real, or imagined.
We see them eating away at our position threatening to knock us off our perch.
We see old fores returning and new ones emerging.
We see a grand conspiracy lining up to destroy us.
Yet we forget the words of one of our greatest presidents, who spoke of who will be the author our destruction.

At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us, it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. -Abraham Lincoln
If we are still that nation of freemen Lincoln spoke of then no force of man can destroy us except that which we unleash upon ourselves.
But we still have this obsession with the world, this psychological need to lead it.
The world indeed has become accustomed to this and has come to rely on it.
But can we really afford it anymore?
This role of superpower is changing us.
The badge if you will of the global cop is changing our attitudes.
It has given us this current hubris, paranoia, control freak nature that is slowly driving us mad.
This position has allowed for the creation of vast incestuous relationships and corruption to infect and subvert our societal institutions.
We now jail and disenfranchise a huge percentage of our population in pursuit of goals that have less to do with improving society as they do with minorities and elites trying to impose their will on society.
We no longer have a safety valve to let the more edgy parts of our society out.
We no longer have the frontier and we no longer have a true national purpose anymore.
It seems that we no longer wish to build or really maintain that city on a hill.

Yet we know that America has and can do amazing things.
We can create that new frontier once more.
We can build civilization to a higher level.
We can become the people who will remembered for all time.
We have been and are using that new frontier.
But this time, this time we can go and stay, go and build and ascend to something higher.
We can be industrious again, and regain our bearings.
We can escape a potential national suicide and become sane again once more.
We can show the world that we don't to all compete for our survival.
To quote JFK not merely peace in our time but peace for all time.
To unlock the infinite ocean that lies before us, to open the door that blocks our way to mankind's ascension is achievement for all time not just for this time.
Every petty war, every little crisis, every little rivalry becomes moot when mankind tastes the waters of the infinite ocean in front us.
To find the key that opens the door to mankind's immortality is an achievement for the ages and an immortal honor for whoever does it.
We can break the cycle of history if we can have the courage and the smarts to do so.
Lets hope that day is soon.

Peering towards a future crisis.

We have seen in the past few weeks, a crisis in the global financial system not seen since the great depression. Banks not knowing the true value of the assets they hold have been unwilling to lend to each other or to anyone for that matter. This has caused a shortage of credit in the world markets sending them tumbling out of control. However as the above article points out compared to others in percentage we have actually lost less wealth. This coupled with the wide-spread belief that this crisis came from America has set the stage for something even more dangerous then a possible global depression.
The stage has been set for widespread demagoguery, widespread protectionism, widespread civil conflict and finally the rise of dangerous new ideologies.
In the Great depression we saw the rise of fascism in Europe out of the ashes of Europe's economies. If this situation deteriorates further and we do enter a true global recession/depression then we can expect history to possibly repeat itself once again. But this time we may not have the luxury of suffering through a long contraction while these new movements build their strength.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163349

Pakistan's economy is essentially running out of steam, while Islamic militants build strength in the uncivilized corners of the country. If the economy collapses and either unstable Pakistan's generals or the militants seize power then they may very well have a final showdown with India and if during that war they desperately use their stockpile of nukes then that will deal a literal death blow to the world economy and possibly produce (according to some calculations) a miniature nuclear winter.
Which is something that we truly don't need to deal with right now.

Thinking about Iraq and the paths we have taken.

Our debacle in Iraq has lately seemed to be entering its endgame that will result in some sort of tactical victory for us but at a huge cost.
This entire war many hold could had been a lot shorter had we made the right decisions right at the beginning and not made mistakes like disbanding the entire army and trying to make it anew.
Yet was a debacle in Iraq inevitable as the invasion which is argued in the link in the title?
Even if we had done all we could off too maintain the state and reform it, would Iraq still travel down the same road?
The state that was defeated was essentially broken by sanctions when we found it anyways so one could possibly understand why Bremer dissolved it and the Iraqi army.
Yet what might of happened had we not done those things?
The Iraqi army would of been able to at least keep a lid on the looting and all those wonderful things that happened across the country post invasion but would they of done it like they usually did with force and brutality?
The Iraqi officer core would also be cause for concern because they might of kept their shia and kurdish countrymen out of their ranks and cling to their power.
It is also doubtful that anyone could really have stopped Al-Qaeda and the rest of the foreign fighters from entering the country and without competition from the former Ba'athists they might of formed a large part of the developing insurgency and if they were pressed early enough might of incited the sectarian violence sooner.
It is also doubtful Iran would enjoyed a Sunni-dominated Iraqi army and would most likely support the Mahdi army and the other shia insurgent groups.

So it seems that in the end it is doubtful that we could of ever really entirely avoided all this bloodshed, even if we took a radically different path.
It really does seem that that because of the confluence of things that converged in Iraq preventing all the things was likely impossible.

Yet because hindsight is 20/20 there are plenty of other things in hindsight that could prevented plenty of bloodshed.
Had Europe stood up to Hitler WWII as we know might never of happened.
Had the Little Ice age came later or the vikings settled Greenland earlier North America may of been populated by descendants of Norsemen and we would be writing in a viking derived language.
Yet in hindsight I think that greatest opportunity in all of history that was missed was probably our ability to prevent the cold war right after WWII.
If we could of knocked out Stalin and the rest of the ruling clique of the Soviet Union at that time and collapsed it then we could prevented the whole conflict right then and there and established a true Pax Americana and perhaps a effective world government to boot.
Had this prevented Mao from taking power and possibly killed off Mr. Kalashnikov then the few million from the bomb and the aftermath would of been offset.
But we didn't because we aren't like that, we don't betray former comrades in arms after the most destructive war known to mankind. We were truly reluctant to become the leader leader of the free world as we still are today.
The consequences of collapsing the Soviets in such a way would also taint us in the eyes of the world, as would ensuring the Pax Americana.
So when we ask ourselves what our role is in the world and look with depression at the rise of the twin Asian giants of India and China who will shape the world we live in a way not seen since our own rise.
But remember there is only one path and that is that we take but we can take more then one path.

Iraq is more or less over.

So anyways guys Iraq has improved a lot lately (a story that the MSM has been ignoring lately) and instead now talks about our recent troubles in Afghanistan. I would however like to talk more about the former for this little discussion.
However let me lay some points and ground rules first.

1. Please don't talk about the politics of the invasion and why we invaded and all that stuff because thats going to get us nowhere if we can't past that. Yes Iraq has been a rather large strategic blunder on our part but we can't change the past so arguing whether we should of invaded in the first place is a waste of thought.

2. Iraq is not Vietnam, in fact Afghanistan is far more similar to Vietnam than Iraq ever has been. Here a few obvious reasons why, firstly in Vietnam we only fought one group the North Vietnamese's communists whether they were guerrillas or regulars they still fought for the same thing and on the same side. Not so in Iraq where we have fought dozens of small groups instead of one large bloc. This has allowed us to play the old game of divide and rule that has handed Al-Qaeda in Iraq a major defeat.

In contrast in Afghanistan we have been mainly fighting the Taliban with few others groups in opposition to it. However the final reason it is not like Vietnam at all is because no one is backing the opposition groups like any of the superpowers did in either Afghanistan or Vietnam. Sure Iran is probably allowing its weapons to be smuggled across the border and maybe sends a few advisor's to help the Shitte militias become something like Hezbollah but thats nothing compared to what we or the soviets did in any of proxy wars.


http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11535688
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11540858

Feeling war Fatigue yet?

Ok, so on to the actual discussion.
I have linked to two articles in the economist for some background on the issue and if anyone wants more links I'll get some.

So anyways lately Iraq's government has been doing quite well for itself in fact
I might say that has even gotten a bit cocky after its performance in Basra, Sadr city and its campaign to finish of Al-Qaeda.

In fact it seems that even Al-Sadr the one who caused all this chaos earlier this year has been forced to disband most of his unruly militia so that he can maintain control over it and so that he can take part in provincial elections later this year.
The Sunni's in Anbar and elsewhere also seem to be quite controlled with all that support we have been giving to their awakenings movements. However Al-Maliki better make more moves to integrate them into the police and army soon lest he cause an actual civil war between frustrated Sunni gunman and security forces. I still doubt though that Iraq will return to the Chaos of 2006 because once a people have seen the abyss as Iraqi's have I doubt they would willingly return to it. They are also becoming more confident in the abilities of the security forces and have more hope for the future now then they did months ago.

But lately two main issue's have come to my attention concerning Iraq, first the SOFA agreement that is supposed to determine the future of American troops once the UN mandate expires this year has most likely been put on the back burner until the new administration takes office. The Iraqi's have refused to sign this agreement because they think it undermines Iraqi sovereignty which it kinda does, so we have been haggling with them so that they can sign it but they have sent signals that they would prefer to discuss with the next administration. However it seems that an interim agreement needed until a deal is signed to keep our troops in Iraq legal.

Secondly as this link below shows Iraqi oil production has been steadily increasing past pre-war levels.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/06/iraq-oil-update.html

Unlike many other oil producers Iraq has invited western oil companies to help Iraq modernize its oil-producing infrastructure and leapfrog production. This is really good news because not only have Oil prices been sky high lately but most of the worlds oil (75%) is under the control of national oil companies who for their host countries serve as piggy banks to fund military build up or lavish social spending. This leaves little cash for investment in improvements in technology or even maintenance of infrastructure. Which has consequently kept output levels the same for sometime now but can now no longer keep up with the demand of developing countries. Therefore by the law of supply and demand when demand rises (developing countries) and supply remains stagnant (no investment) we get a rise in price. So the reason why this is so important is that eventually oil and therefore gas prices should lower when more production comes online.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11454989

Ok that was a lot of writing, Wall of text is over!

Misson accomplished!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7411113.stm

Phoenix touched down on the Red Planet at 7:53 p.m. Eastern Time, May 25, 2008, in an arctic region called Vastitas Borealis or the northern polar plains of Mars.
They plan to do a variety of experiments to look for life and understand what the environment of the northern plain is like. However unfortunately barring a miracle Phoenix is unlikely to survive the harsh Martian winter and will be entombed in ice for quite a while waiting for someone to discover it.

So what do you guys think?