Iraq is more or less over.

So anyways guys Iraq has improved a lot lately (a story that the MSM has been ignoring lately) and instead now talks about our recent troubles in Afghanistan. I would however like to talk more about the former for this little discussion.
However let me lay some points and ground rules first.

1. Please don't talk about the politics of the invasion and why we invaded and all that stuff because thats going to get us nowhere if we can't past that. Yes Iraq has been a rather large strategic blunder on our part but we can't change the past so arguing whether we should of invaded in the first place is a waste of thought.

2. Iraq is not Vietnam, in fact Afghanistan is far more similar to Vietnam than Iraq ever has been. Here a few obvious reasons why, firstly in Vietnam we only fought one group the North Vietnamese's communists whether they were guerrillas or regulars they still fought for the same thing and on the same side. Not so in Iraq where we have fought dozens of small groups instead of one large bloc. This has allowed us to play the old game of divide and rule that has handed Al-Qaeda in Iraq a major defeat.

In contrast in Afghanistan we have been mainly fighting the Taliban with few others groups in opposition to it. However the final reason it is not like Vietnam at all is because no one is backing the opposition groups like any of the superpowers did in either Afghanistan or Vietnam. Sure Iran is probably allowing its weapons to be smuggled across the border and maybe sends a few advisor's to help the Shitte militias become something like Hezbollah but thats nothing compared to what we or the soviets did in any of proxy wars.


http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11535688
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11540858

Feeling war Fatigue yet?

Ok, so on to the actual discussion.
I have linked to two articles in the economist for some background on the issue and if anyone wants more links I'll get some.

So anyways lately Iraq's government has been doing quite well for itself in fact
I might say that has even gotten a bit cocky after its performance in Basra, Sadr city and its campaign to finish of Al-Qaeda.

In fact it seems that even Al-Sadr the one who caused all this chaos earlier this year has been forced to disband most of his unruly militia so that he can maintain control over it and so that he can take part in provincial elections later this year.
The Sunni's in Anbar and elsewhere also seem to be quite controlled with all that support we have been giving to their awakenings movements. However Al-Maliki better make more moves to integrate them into the police and army soon lest he cause an actual civil war between frustrated Sunni gunman and security forces. I still doubt though that Iraq will return to the Chaos of 2006 because once a people have seen the abyss as Iraqi's have I doubt they would willingly return to it. They are also becoming more confident in the abilities of the security forces and have more hope for the future now then they did months ago.

But lately two main issue's have come to my attention concerning Iraq, first the SOFA agreement that is supposed to determine the future of American troops once the UN mandate expires this year has most likely been put on the back burner until the new administration takes office. The Iraqi's have refused to sign this agreement because they think it undermines Iraqi sovereignty which it kinda does, so we have been haggling with them so that they can sign it but they have sent signals that they would prefer to discuss with the next administration. However it seems that an interim agreement needed until a deal is signed to keep our troops in Iraq legal.

Secondly as this link below shows Iraqi oil production has been steadily increasing past pre-war levels.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/06/iraq-oil-update.html

Unlike many other oil producers Iraq has invited western oil companies to help Iraq modernize its oil-producing infrastructure and leapfrog production. This is really good news because not only have Oil prices been sky high lately but most of the worlds oil (75%) is under the control of national oil companies who for their host countries serve as piggy banks to fund military build up or lavish social spending. This leaves little cash for investment in improvements in technology or even maintenance of infrastructure. Which has consequently kept output levels the same for sometime now but can now no longer keep up with the demand of developing countries. Therefore by the law of supply and demand when demand rises (developing countries) and supply remains stagnant (no investment) we get a rise in price. So the reason why this is so important is that eventually oil and therefore gas prices should lower when more production comes online.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=11454989

Ok that was a lot of writing, Wall of text is over!