Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Peering towards a future crisis.

We have seen in the past few weeks, a crisis in the global financial system not seen since the great depression. Banks not knowing the true value of the assets they hold have been unwilling to lend to each other or to anyone for that matter. This has caused a shortage of credit in the world markets sending them tumbling out of control. However as the above article points out compared to others in percentage we have actually lost less wealth. This coupled with the wide-spread belief that this crisis came from America has set the stage for something even more dangerous then a possible global depression.
The stage has been set for widespread demagoguery, widespread protectionism, widespread civil conflict and finally the rise of dangerous new ideologies.
In the Great depression we saw the rise of fascism in Europe out of the ashes of Europe's economies. If this situation deteriorates further and we do enter a true global recession/depression then we can expect history to possibly repeat itself once again. But this time we may not have the luxury of suffering through a long contraction while these new movements build their strength.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163349

Pakistan's economy is essentially running out of steam, while Islamic militants build strength in the uncivilized corners of the country. If the economy collapses and either unstable Pakistan's generals or the militants seize power then they may very well have a final showdown with India and if during that war they desperately use their stockpile of nukes then that will deal a literal death blow to the world economy and possibly produce (according to some calculations) a miniature nuclear winter.
Which is something that we truly don't need to deal with right now.